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“Austan Goolsbee gets top White House economic job”

Friday, September 10th, 2010

This afternoon, Politico reported that Austan Goolsbee has been named to take over as the new chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Goolsbee, 41, will succeed Christina Romer. A senior administration official said Goolsbee is a team player who can navigate the White House, and is a skilled television interviewee who can help the president promote his economic message.

Goolsbee is a member of the CEA, and staff director and chief economist on the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.

As a University of Chicago economics professor, he advised Obama’s 2004 Senate campaign and 2008 presidential campaign.

In announcing the Economic Recovery Advisory Board in Chicago shortly after Obama’s election, he said: “Austan is one of America’s most promising economic minds, known for his path-breaking work on tax policy and industrial organization. He is one of the economic thinkers who has most shaped my own thinking on economic matters, and I look forward to continuing our close collaboration in the White House.”

State News Roundup

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

Here’s a look at some of this week’s most interesting, and consequential, budget- and economy-related issues in the 50 states:

The President unveiled a $50 billion infrastructure spending plan on a Labor Day stop in Wisconsin. The money would be spent over six years on roads, railroads and airport runways. The Washington Post has the story from Milwaukee.

In anticipation of the President’s visit to Cleveland, the Cleveland Plain Dealer laid out a to-do list for the President to revive the city’s economy. The paper wrote that Ohioans are faced with “unacceptably high unemployment and an economy that lagged the nation’s even before credit markets froze need more than some national salves or the vague promise to ‘fight.’”

In an editorial, the Philadelphia Inquirer urged Senate Republicans to end their opposition to small business tax breaks arguing that it would be a reasonable measure to boost the economy.

Earlier this week in the New York Times, Edward Glaeser examined three states’ economies. He argues that the problems Florida, Michigan and California are having could be a product of their past success; “a reflection of an abundance of people relative to economic activity.”

The Washington Post recently examined the effect Washington is having on small businesses. A small business owner profiled in the article felt overburdened, explaining, “What I want government to do is not raise taxes — decrease them to allow us extra money for hiring.”

Debt weakens U.S.’ international position

Thursday, September 9th, 2010

As the already-unsustainable level of U.S. debt continues to grow, so too will its consequences for our nation’s economic and fiscal situation, warns a growingly diverse choir. Meanwhile, yet another dismal economic forecast again underscores the failure of U.S policymakers’ attempts to spend our way to balance and prosperity.

See excerpts from today’s key stories on the subject, below:

From The Hill:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton waded into the nation’s fiscal debate Wednesday, calling the expected $1.3 trillion U.S. deficit a “message of weakness internationally.”

“It poses a national security threat in two ways: it undermines our capacity to act in our own interest, and it does constrain us where constraint may be undesirable,” [said Clinton].

CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf has said that the debt, expected by his office to grow by nearly $1 trillion annually over the next decade and by increasingly larger amounts in years beyond, is on an unsustainable path.

Click here to read the entire story.

From The Washington Post:

Large deficits and a weakened financial system have made the United States less competitive in the global economy, the World Economic Forum said in its annual review of the competitiveness of countries.

The United States slipped from second to fourth in the survey, behind Switzerland, Sweden and Singapore. It had fallen from first place the year before.

The study includes statistical measures as well as a survey of business owners to compare countries. In the United States, the entrepreneurs cited access to credit and government regulation among their chief concerns.

But it was government debt and the country’s overall economic outlook that pushed the United States down in the rankings, said Irene Mia, senior economist at the forum.

Government debt affects a country’s competitiveness by limiting its ability to respond to crises or make infrastructure and other investments that could boost future productivity. It may also lead to higher interest rates.

Click here to read the entire story.

From Reuters:

Projected U.S. economic growth for the rest of this year and next was revised down for a third month in a row by a panel of about 50 economists.

The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators report on Thursday said the weaker outlook for second-half 2010 growth stemmed from lower expectations for consumer spending, business investment and private construction.

“Given the depth of the recession, a forecast of roughly trend growth this year and next amounts to a very disappointing pace of recovery, with little progress expected to be made in lowering the unemployment rate,” the forecast said.

Its consensus forecast is that the U.S. unemployment rate will end this year at 9.6 percent and fall only to 9 percent by the end of 2011.

Click here to read the entire story.

Another “stimulus”?

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

A slew of new initiatives aimed at jumpstarting economic growth are being announced this week. The proposals include $50 billion in infrastructure spending, extending the tax credit for research and development, and a capital investment tax write-off.

Some in Washington are adamant that these new measures aren’t just another round of stimulus. We decided to take a closer look. Are these proposals a fresh approach or are they just more stimulus spending?

Click here to see our new Fiscal Cheat Sheet and decide for yourself.

Cool reception for new “stimulus”

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

A new economic “stimulus” proposal floating around Washington in the days before Congress returns is not sitting well with many. Here’s a brief roundup of today’s reactions:

According to USA Today, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, who has advised both House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and former presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said the $180 billion package of tax cuts and infrastructure spending will not “add up to a lot of new jobs.”

Ken Camp, CEO of Hillenbrand, Inc., told The Wall Street Journal a tax break included in the plan to spur business investment “wouldn’t persuade him to increase investment at the company…” The problem, it seems, is the temporary nature of most of the proposals. Terex Corp. Ron DeFeo, said the tax incentives won’t “change fundamental demand” and actually could lead to more instability in the economy.

One manufacturer said the tax portion of the bill may help a little, but he’s much more concerned with the looming tax increases he’ll face when the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expire. Brad Benson, president of Squires-Belt Material Co., told the Los Angeles Times while he welcomes the proposal “as a manufacturer, [he’s] more concerned with the tax-cut issue.”

To what extent is Washington harming small business?

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

The Washington Post this morning has an interesting article exploring the effect of economic policy on small businesses. The piece concludes small businesses are overtaxed and overburdened by Washington.

In the last year-and-a-half, no less than a dozen programs have been created to help small businesses. Administrations past and present have focused their small business policy on loans and targeted tax credits with few results: there is too much uncertainty for small business owners to hire. Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight, says these programs, along with new regulations for things like health care and financial reform, have made entrepreneurs feel less secure about the economy. According to Bethune, “They may see it as more interference … they see it as bureaucratic intrusion.”

Chris Upham, owner of a real estate and construction business in Washington, DC, said higher taxes and more regulations have kept him from hiring new workers. He knows what he wants from Congress: “What I want government to do is not raise taxes — decrease them to allow us extra money for hiring.”

Upham’s real-world view stands counter to some in academia who are pushing Congress to raise taxes. Today in the Los Angeles Times an MIT professor suggests Congress raise the top income tax rates to pre-1980s levels (this means a top rate of 70 percent) to get the economy going again.

Lawmakers will return from recess next week and spend the remaining weeks of the legislative session considering new stimulus proposals (more on them here). Before they cast their votes, they should remember each decision they make will have consequences for all Americans, particularly small businesses.

“On Labor Day, the nation’s labor pains grow”

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

In an op-ed published in The Tampa Tribune on Labor Day, Public Notice’s Executive Director, Gretchen Hamel, argues that the boom in government jobs is not the way to economic recovery.

The number of people currently unemployed is almost double what it was at the start of the recession in December 2007. Eleven states currently report unemployment rates over 10 percent. And these figures do not account for the millions who have given up looking for work, or settled for part-time jobs or jobs for which they are highly overqualified.

One notable area that has blossomed: government. Since the recession began, the federal government has added 262,000 jobs. At a time when everyone else is being forced to tighten their belts and make painful budget cuts, many are perplexed by the fact that government continues to grow.

Currently, the government workforce is 22.5 million strong. That means 22.5 million workers are relying on American taxpayers – not the goods-producing private sector – for their paychecks.

According to new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, average compensation (wages plus benefits) for a civilian federal employee is $123,000; for the private sector the same figure is $61,000. Even the most conservative estimates (adjusting for differences in skill level and experience) suggest that private sector employees have to work for 13.5 months to make the same amount that government employees make in 12 months.

While government seems highly confident in its decision to grow, the business world is not. Businesses are currently holding on to an estimated $1.8 trillion in cash reserves – money that is desperately needed to drive innovation and job creation. Why? In a word: uncertainty.

These enormous cash reserves are largely a result of uncertainty and lack of confidence about policies coming out of Washington. All of the unknowns surrounding economic policy (e.g. which taxes will increase and whether stimulus money will continue to distort the market) have left businesses unable to plan – to decide where or when to invest, whether to expand and hire. So they wait, as does our recovery.

Click here to read the entire op-ed.

Public Pulse: right or wrong direction and Congressional pay

Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

According to a poll by Economist/YouGov, 28.3% of adults think the country is headed in the right direction, down from 35% one year ago. 56.8% think it’s headed in the wrong direction, up from 51% last year.



 
According to Rasmussen, 75% of likely voters believe Congress should cut its own pay until it balances the federal budget. Only 16% oppose this idea.



 

“How to Fix The Economy? Sometimes Less is More”

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

As Washington begins to re-float the idea of another “stimulus,” USA Today advises: “Don’t just stand there – do nothing.”

As the economic recovery falters, pressure is mounting on policymakers to do something —anything — to boost growth, preferably before Election Day.

In response to this clamor for another short-term stimulus, here’s one piece of advice: Don’t just stand there — do nothing. More government borrowing and spending would accomplish little but provide lawmakers yet another rationale for delaying the day of reckoning.

But for now, with depression off the table and about 30% of the $814 billion stimulus still in the pipeline, it’s time for government to start following the lead of its people and businesses. Instead of passing a minor stimulus that would be almost meaningless in the context of global economic trends, Washington should focus on the big picture. The national debt stands at $13.4 trillion, or $104,000 for every U.S. household. And even that is just a prelude to the horrific numbers projected over the next two decades as the result of surging expenditures on health care and retirement.

Acting to slow the growth in benefit programs such as Social Security and Medicare would not only forestall economic Armageddon down the road, it also might actually be the best thing for the economy now. It would restore confidence among investors that the nation is not heading for a major credit crisis or a period of hyperinflation.

Unemployment rate increases to 9.6 percent

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

August was another bleak month for the country’s employment situation. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the unemployment rate was 9.6 percent last month, up from 9.5 percent in July.

There was some good news in today’s release: the private sector added 67,000 jobs, including 27,000 jobs in the construction industry and 8,000 jobs in the mining industry.

However, the number of people now unemployed stands at 14.9 million. Of those, 6.9 million have been unemployed for over 27 weeks.

Since May, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent.  If one thing is clear, it’s this: Washington needs a new approach to economic policy.