MEMORANDUM: National survey on government shutdown and budget
Get the latest intel on Washington's fiscal woes.Close
DATE: APRIL 4, 2011
TO: PUBLIC NOTICE
FROM: THE TARRANCE GROUP
RE: NATIONAL SURVEY ON GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND BUDGET
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Public Notice with the key findings from a survey of N=800 registered “likely” voters across the country. Interviews were conducted March 29-31, 2011. In 95 out of 100 cases, the margin of error on a sample of this type is +/- 3.5%.
- If there is a government shutdown, no party receives a majority of the blame. While 38% would blame the Republicans in Congress for a shutdown, a similar percentage (41%) would blame either the Democrats in Congress (23%) or President Barack Obama (18%). This is similar to February, when 37% said they would blame the GOP in Congress, 20% would blame the Democrats in Congress, and 22% would blame Obama.
- Voters have turned the corner and have made clear their support for deep cuts to the budget. Nearly three quarters of voters (73%) say it is very important that the budget include “significant” spending cuts. When it comes to $100 billion in cuts, only 23% say this percentage is too high, while a majority (63%) says $100 billion is too low (34%) or about right (29%). This is virtually unchanged from February, when 21% said $60 billion was too high, and a majority (67%) said the figure was too low (36%) or about right (31%).
- Supporting $100 billion in cuts would result in a net positive political impact for members of Congress. A majority (55%) are more likely to support their member of Congress if he or she supports these cuts, while only 24% are less likely. This is also similar to February, when 52% were more likely to re-elect their member if he or she supports $61 billion in cuts.
- Eight in ten (81%) voters say it is very important that Congress pass a budget this year.
- A strong majority (80%) of voters are very concerned about the level of federal debt. Specifically in regards to the debt, more Americans are concerned that “we are indebted to other countries like China” (51%) than the fact that “more of our budget goes to paying interest on the debt instead of using it for our country’s immediate needs” (39%).
- Voters are unaware that there have been cuts in spending for the measures passed by Congress so far this year. As a plurality, voters (46%) say Congress has increased spending so far, while only 32% say they have cut spending.
- There is widespread discontent with the federal tax code. Two thirds (65%) of voters say the Federal tax code needs “major” changes. Only 30% say the tax code needs modest changes (18%) or a “minor adjustment” (12%).
- Although 47% of Americans pay no income tax, voters perceive the percentage to be much smaller. A majority (53%) say the percentage paying no income tax is 40% or less, with 42% of those saying the percentage paying no income tax is 30% or less.
- When presented with three arguments about raising the debt ceiling, less than a quarter of voters most agree with the argument that the debt ceiling needs to be raised in order to avoid things like a shutdown and Social Security checks not being mailed. In fact, a plurality chooses to NOT raise the debt ceiling at all:
30%: Some people say that Congress should only raise the debt ceiling if it can also guarantee real, significant spending cuts starting this year. We will never balance the budget until we drastically cut the amount of money we spend.
22%: Other people say that Congress must act to raise the debt ceiling regardless of whether it includes spending cuts, or else the United States government will shut down and will default on its obligations, such as not being able to make Social Security checks and salaries for police and teachers.
42%: Still other people say that we should NOT raise the debt ceiling even if spending cuts are made because the nation must eliminate the trillion dollar debt we face instead of adding to it.
Public Notice is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit, 501(c)(4) organization dedicated to providing the facts and insights on the effects public policy has on Americans’ financial well being.